Warm summer weather and the Women’s Euro football tournament gave a welcome boost to Britain’s high streets and online retailers in July, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Retail sales volumes rose by 0.6% over the month — stronger than many economists had forecast. Clothing and footwear outlets, alongside online sellers, recorded the sharpest gains. But while July offered some relief for retailers, the figures also came with caveats: underlying sales over the previous three months were still down, and the ONS faced criticism after admitting earlier errors in its reporting.
ONS Figures and Revisions
The ONS said the 0.6% rise in July was driven by demand for summer clothing and seasonal goods, with many shoppers citing both the sunshine and the football tournament as reasons to spend. However, sales in the three months to July fell by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, reflecting a slowdown since spring. The release itself was delayed by two weeks after the ONS admitted to mistakes in seasonal adjustments, prompting an apology from officials. Most of last year’s retail sales figures have now been revised to smooth out volatile month-to-month changes.
Sector Performance
James Benford, the ONS’s director general of economic statistics, acknowledged that supermarkets, sports shops and household goods stores had “a strong start to the year” but said spending in those categories had dipped since March. Online platforms, clothing retailers and shoe shops offset some of the decline. Analysts highlighted specific beneficiaries: Currys reported a surge in sales of fans and air conditioners during July’s heatwave, while fashion retailers saw customers updating wardrobes with lighter summer clothes that doubled as office wear.
Analysts Weigh In
Financial analysts said July’s surge was welcome but unlikely to last. Danni Hewson of AJ Bell noted that hot weather and the Women’s Euros created a one-off lift in demand. “Long spells of sunshine tempted many of us to splash out on summer lines,” she said, adding that extreme heat also boosted appliance sales. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, warned the factors driving July’s rise “won’t be repeated” and suggested looming tax increases ahead of November’s Budget could dampen spending further.
Consumer Outlook
Retail sales are a key indicator of consumer confidence and broader economic health. While economists said the revisions to past ONS figures would not affect growth estimates for the first half of 2025, the outlook for the months ahead remains uncertain. Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser at EY ITEM Club, said households may loosen the caution that has defined recent years, but added: “Softer earnings growth, higher inflation, tighter fiscal policy, and the lagged impact of past interest rate rises… point to much weaker real income growth moving forward.”
July’s retail numbers underline both the fragility and resilience of UK consumer spending. The sunshine and a successful sporting tournament encouraged shoppers to spend, giving temporary relief to the retail sector. Yet with households still squeezed by inflation and the prospect of higher taxes, economists caution that sustained growth will depend less on the weather and more on whether consumers feel confident enough to keep spending through the rest of the year.
