England could see the equivalent of 800 primary schools empty or shut by the end of the decade as falling birthrates and shifting demographics drive down pupil numbers, new research has revealed.
Low birthrates and London exodus
The Education Policy Institute (EPI) found that declining birthrates are the primary driver of the fall, but the effect is being magnified in London, where families are leaving the capital or switching to private or overseas schools.
The thinktank warned that councils are already struggling to keep schools open, with funding directly tied to pupil enrolments. The wave of closures and mergers seen in parts of England is expected to intensify as numbers continue to drop.
Jon Andrews, the EPI’s head of analysis, said:
“Schools with falling pupil numbers face increasing financial pressures, which can ultimately threaten their long-term viability. This issue emerged first in London, where enrolment declines began earlier than in the rest of the country.”
The numbers behind the decline
Birthrates peaked in 2010, leading to a surge in demand for primary places between 2014 and 2018. Councils opened new schools and expanded capacity at speed. But since then, the birthrate has slowed dramatically.
Primary enrolment reached a high of 4.5 million in 2018-19. It has since fallen by nearly 2% and is forecast to fall by a further 4% over the next five years. By 2029, pupil numbers are expected to stand at just 4.24 million — a decline of 162,000 children. That drop is equivalent to the closure of 800 single-form entry primary schools.
Calls for government intervention
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, urged ministers to step in to help councils protect struggling schools.
“This could build capacity for greater inclusion and enable schools to offer smaller classes and more targeted help,” he said.
Lily Wielar, an EPI researcher and co-author of the report, said other pressures were also shaping family decisions.
“Our analysis shows that falling pupil numbers cannot be explained by declining birthrates alone. Wider factors – such as the cost of living, housing pressures and regional differences in school provision and quality – are also likely to be shaping where families live and the choices they make.”
London hit hardest
London is expected to see the steepest declines. Nine of the 10 local authorities with the largest falls in primary numbers are in the capital, with Islington, Lambeth and Southwark facing the sharpest drops.
The report also highlighted that of the children who started reception in 2017-18, one in five had left the London state school system before reaching year 6. Ten percent of those pupils were no longer recorded in state education at all — a shift the EPI linked to post-Brexit migration or families moving abroad during or after the Covid pandemic.
The thinktank said such “missing or permanent leavers” likely reflected London’s higher proportion of international families, as well as a greater tendency for parents to opt for independent schools.
