England is facing a dramatic rise in cancer cases, with more than six million people expected to be diagnosed by 2040, according to new analysis from a coalition of leading charities.
The group, known as One Cancer Voice, represents more than 60 organisations and is urging ministers to act now. Their forecast suggests a cancer diagnosis every two minutes by the end of the next 15 years — a striking jump from the 1970s, when cases appeared at half that rate. Campaigners say the figures highlight the need for faster diagnoses, tougher prevention measures, and fairer access to treatment as the NHS struggles with rising demand.
A Sharp Increase Ahead
The projections, which draw mainly on pre-pandemic data, indicate a 14% increase in cancer cases by 2040. Prostate cancer is set to account for more than one million new cases, with breast cancer close behind at over 900,000.
Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, described the situation as a “defining moment” for the health service. “If the UK government delivers an ambitious, fully funded strategy, we could save more lives and transform outcomes,” she said. “This is the time to turn England from lagging behind to leading the world in tackling cancer.”
Regional Disparities
The outlook varies significantly across England. The South East could see more than a million diagnoses, while the North East is projected to record around 865,000. In both the East of England and the South West, figures are expected to reach 722,000, with London predicted to face about 714,000.
Health experts say these regional differences reflect long-standing inequalities in access to care and screening, combined with local lifestyle and demographic factors.
Six Steps Urged by Charities
With the government preparing to publish its long-awaited National Cancer Plan this autumn, the charities have set out six demands. They include cutting waiting times, setting a new target for early diagnosis, introducing stronger prevention policies, tackling inequalities in care, expanding access to clinical trials, and improving long-term support for patients.
Government Response
The Department of Health and Social Care insisted progress is being made. A spokesperson said nearly 95,000 more people were diagnosed or had cancer ruled out within 28 days between July 2024 and May 2025 compared with the previous year. They pointed to measures already in place, such as DIY cervical cancer screening kits, new radiotherapy machines across the country, and legislation aimed at creating a “smoke-free generation”.
The Stakes
The warning comes against a backdrop of record NHS waiting lists, workforce shortages, and the ongoing impact of the pandemic on cancer services. With the number of cases set to rise sharply, campaigners argue the government’s plan will determine whether England can close the survival gap with other nations or risk falling further behind.
